Türkiye Ekonomisi için 1980 Sonrasında Enflasyon ve Büyümenin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkileri: ARDL Yaklaşımı: The Effects of Inflation and Growth on Unemployment for the Turkish Economy After 1980: The ARDL Approach

Atilla Aydın

Authors

Atilla Aydın İstanbul Gelişim Üniversitesi

Keywords:

Unemployment, Inflation, , Economic Growth, Globalization, Bound Test

Abstract

In the 1980s, the Turkish economy entered the liberalization and globalization process in parallel with the trend in the world. The economic policies implemented within the framework of the globalization process gave different results in different countries. The phenomenon of high inflation has become a chronic problem in Turkey in the 1980s and 1990s. Inflation rates, which started to decline after 2002, are still at high levels today. Growth rates followed a fluctuating course and contractions were observed in the economy, especially during the financial crisis. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of inflation and economic growth rates on unemployment for the Turkish economy after 1980. ARDL Bound Test was used as econometric method in the study. While unemployment is considered as the dependent variable, inflation and growth rates are used as independent variables. As a result of the study, a long-term cointegration relationship was found between the variables. In addition, the long-term coefficients were estimated, and the parameter coefficients related to both inflation and growth rate variables were obtained as negative. In other words, a negative relationship was detected. In the short-term analysis, the error correction model was established and according to the result obtained from the model, it was concluded that the deviations seen in the short-term disappeared in the long-term.

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The Effects of Inflation and Growth on Unemployment for the Turkish Economy After 1980: The ARDL Approach