Döviz Kuru Geçiş Etkisi: Türkiye ve Avrupa Devletleri Örneği : Exchange Rate Passage Effect: The Case of Türkiye and European States

Hanne  BABACAN GEÇER

Authors

Hanne BABACAN GEÇER

Keywords:

Exchange rate, Pass-through, Unit root test

Abstract

The rate and magnitude of the exchange rate transition may change in different regions in different periods. Indeed, in import-dependent countries, the transition may tend to increase, and an uncertain upward movement of the general price level will adversely affect the economy. In order to test the direction and magnitude of the transition effect between the exchange rate and prices, and to compare these results with other countries in the region, an examination was carried out between the years 2020-2024, including the pandemic period. In the study, Unit Root Test ADF and PP analyses were applied by using the producer price index (PPI), consumer price index (CPI) and real effective exchange rate series. Then, the VAR model was created. In addition to the Granger causality analysis performed to test causality, Tado-Yamomata analysis was performed. As a result of these analyses, it was observed that there was a one-way causality from PPI to CPI in Turkey. Although the magnitude of the transition was less in other countries in the region, it was concluded that its direction was from PPI to CPI.

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Exchange Rate Passage Effect: The Case of Türkiye and European States